Monday, April 24, 2006
Straight Talk About Iran
We Must Solve The Iranian Problem Soon
In My Opinion:
Iran will not back down from its development of nuclear weapons.
The UN will not succeed in getting them to stop.
The EU will not do anything of significance to force Iran to stop.
American diplomacy will not succeed in getting Iran to stop.
Sanctions will not succeed in Iran anymore than in Iraq.
Bombing Iran's nuclear facilities will only delay the issue for a few years, while Iran will disrupt oil supplies in retaliation, which will create both national and international chaos. Not the recommended route!
It will once again be up to the US to decide what to do.
Best reporting on Iran's progress towards a nuclear weapon gives us perhaps a year or so before it is too late.
The main threat from Iran, once she is armed with nuclear weapons is twofold: the destruction of Israel, and serious damage to US cities, with tens or hundreds of thousands of casualties. Iran's fingerprints will not be on the weapons, as they will use one of many jihadist organizations to perform this task.
The secondary threat from Iran is terrorism throughout the West, using their embedded cadres of jihadists infiltrated into our nations. Iran has been shown to be the largest supporter of terrorism, even rivalling Saudi Arabia.
Watch for many thousands of Arabs and other Muslims fleeing from Israel to avoid the bombs! The delivery means Iran will use is simply smuggling bombs into our cities. They do not need long range missiles.
We will need our bases in Iraq for this conflict. We will need Israel's help too.
We will need a large number of troops in the area, mainly in Iraq and Kuwait. We will need the Air Force and the Navy in the area in force too.
We must invade Iran, after preparing the Iranians to believe that we are not after their oil, have not been and will not be, witness Iraq today. We need to convince the majority of Iranians that all we wish to do is remove the threat of nuclear weapons once and for all, and to stop the terrorist attacks on us.
Invasion is the only way to discover and eradicate all of their nuclear capabilities and long range missiles, and at the same time, to force a regime change favorable to us, and to the majority of Iranians.
Beyond tokenism from some of our friends, we will not amass a large military coalition force for this invasion. The UK has essentially bowed out already. So this fight will be ours alone.
My estimate is that we will need at least 500 to 800 thousand troops to subdue Iran and keep the peace. That may rise if we can get an accurate assessment of the readiness of Iran's army of 2 million men in some 29 divisions. The problem is, if we field this number of troops in Iran, we will be significantly short of troops elsewhere.
It would seem, then, that we may have to reintroduce the draft, not to field these newly trained men in Iran, but to shore up our standing numbers in the US and in other places where we have commitments, but no shooting war to contend with. Our volunteer professional soldiers will bear the brunt of the invasion and fighting.
The need to reinforce our troop levels, get Congressional approval, and to manufacture additional vehicles, weapons and munitions are the main reasons that I believe we will not move on Iran until 2008. The draft will not be possible to arrange before the 2006 elections, and it will take months to pass the bill authorizing the preemptive war on Iran and the draft, and then begin to induct raw trainees.
I do not believe that a US President will authorize the use of nuclear weapons in a first-strike scenario. If, however, Iran, or one of her surrogates, does explode such a weapon on our territory, radioactive silicone will rain down on every country for many miles to the East of what used to be Iran.
This issue, Iran and what to do, will be one of the deciding issues in the 2006 and 2008 elections. I contend that the current Republican Party and its candidates will succeed in winning because they are accorded better capabilities and decision-making in running a war than are the Democrats.
Passivists are not in favor when we are heading for war.