Rightwords... Prudent Conservatism

1. Invasion:
-15 to 20 divisions
-Full air support
-Japanese Bases a must
-South Korea bases a must
-5 or 6 Carrier Task Forces
-Question: How to keep China out of it?
-Question: Would Japan support this?
-Question: Would S. Korea support this?

2. Surgical Strikes Against Nuclear and Missile Facilities
-A few B-2 night air raids
-Conventional weapons
-Question: Is intelligence good enough?
-Question: What about China?

3. Bombing-Military and Industrial Targets
-B-2, F-117, B-1, B-52
-Japanese Bases a must
-South Korean bases a must
-F-15, F-16 fighters for air cover
-Lots of KC-10 and other tankers
-4 Carrier Task Forces
-Question: Would Japan cooperate?
-Question: What about China?
-Question: Would S. Korea support this?

4. Nuclear Bombing of Key Targets
-B-2, Missile attack
-Collateral damage extensive
-World opinion of US bottoms
-Question: Chinese response?

5. Diplomacy
-Must be tried seriously
-China and Japan are key, followed by South Korea
-The invasion option (1.) is unrealistic
-All know we are stretched too thin just now for invasion
-The nuclear option (4.) is a last resort
-Bombing campaign (3.) is too expensive


Option (2.)is by far the most likely! We are back to the WMD intelligence problem! Do we know where the key nuclear bomb facilities and missile facilities are? We are also back to the question of whether we must mobilize, institute the draft, or other means for enlarging our forces, if only to give us a credible set of options. The support we need from Japan is a big question. China is an even bigger question. Hard diplomacy is needed, and perhaps backed up with some mobilization steps.

With a few changes (Russia for China, Iraq for S. Korea, and The Gulf States for Japan) my previous post could apply to Iran as well, I believe. The penalties for a surgical strike on Iran appear to be less than for NK. We would need to reinforce our ground troops in Iraq first, however.

# posted by Mannning @ 4:55 PM