Monday, February 14, 2005
Here we go again. The Europeans have reached an impasse with the Iranians over their nuclear program. Iran has refused to stop developments that could lead to a bomb. What is left hazy is just how near they are to having such a weapon. They could have one and not tested it; or they could be years away from it. The consensus appears to be that it is a matter of months before a testable device is ready. Once a test is successful, production could begin, and we then have a new member of the nuclear club.
The European failure makes it likely that the US will take the matter to the UN, and push hard for a set of sanctions on Iraq. By the time sanctions are voted out of the Security Council, Iran may have completed its first bomb. By the time such sanctions have any real damaging effect on Iran, they may well have stockpiled a few more bombs, and thus be in the same position as North Korea. Iran could then negotiate from strength, by using the threat of sending Tel Aviv into silicon. The question is, what do we do about it?
The Israelis have said that they would not stand for Iran to have nuclear weapons. The Israeli Air Force is capable of attacking Iran, and knocking out their known nuclear facilities. If they do, I believe several things will happen: 1) The US will be blamed, along with Israel, throughout the Middle East for what the IAF did (nothing new there), if only because we let the IAF overfly Iraq, and because we are the Great Satin; 2) Iran has vowed to retaliate, and I believe they would; and, 3) We would inevitably be drawn into the situation, including direct fighting between our forces in Iraq and the Iranian army.
A confirmation of this prediction would be the US callup of more Reserves, and further deployments of brigades to Iraq in advance of a possible Israeli strike. Standby!