Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Decision Time is Nigh
One hopes that both our intel and that of the Israelis is very near the mark, if not right on. From the disparity between our red line and that of Israel it is suggested that one of us is not so very near the mark, but which one? There is no way to tell from the outside of the intel bubbles, and we have an enormous interest in keeping the lid on war. So do the Israelis, but theirs is a fear of annihilation if their intel fails to warn them far enough in advance that Iran is indeed pressing forward with development of nuclear weaponry. So the question remains: will the Israelis attack Iran, and repeat it often enough to stop the developments. Most interested parties seem to take the view that we, the US, can afford to delay the Israeli decision and hope for a diplomatic breakthrough stemming from our sanctions. There is even justification being put forth for Iran to go for nuclear weapons and for “containment” thereafter.
One wonders what the decision-makers in Israel think of these trends. It is, after all, their necks in the noose, and not ours; it is their population that could face wipeout, not ours. And it is their expensive and extensive preparations for this conflict that puts them in a position to strike and succeed. So they can decide to attack at the last moment. They must hope that the US would support their fight for existence, but they can readily believe that without a direct retaliation attack by Iran on US facilities and people, America may well stand by and watch.
Can Iran be counted upon to broaden their retaliations to include the US? They say so repeatedly, but those are words, not actions. This will evolve if the Israelis attack, and not before. So Israel is left with the stark decision to attack all by themselves, and the time is drawing closer by the day. They know well what they are doing, and to be the second user of nuclear weapons in the world (EMP only, however, which minimizes casualties) is going to hurt them mightily, but they put this up against the clear threat from Iran of nuclear annihilation of their people and their homeland– sooner or later. This argues for a go to their forces soon. Whether we become involved is up to, first, the Israeli decision to attack, and second, to the Iranians if their retaliations include US facilities and people. We must be prepared for that eventuality.
One wonders what the decision-makers in Israel think of these trends. It is, after all, their necks in the noose, and not ours; it is their population that could face wipeout, not ours. And it is their expensive and extensive preparations for this conflict that puts them in a position to strike and succeed. So they can decide to attack at the last moment. They must hope that the US would support their fight for existence, but they can readily believe that without a direct retaliation attack by Iran on US facilities and people, America may well stand by and watch.
Can Iran be counted upon to broaden their retaliations to include the US? They say so repeatedly, but those are words, not actions. This will evolve if the Israelis attack, and not before. So Israel is left with the stark decision to attack all by themselves, and the time is drawing closer by the day. They know well what they are doing, and to be the second user of nuclear weapons in the world (EMP only, however, which minimizes casualties) is going to hurt them mightily, but they put this up against the clear threat from Iran of nuclear annihilation of their people and their homeland– sooner or later. This argues for a go to their forces soon. Whether we become involved is up to, first, the Israeli decision to attack, and second, to the Iranians if their retaliations include US facilities and people. We must be prepared for that eventuality.
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