Rightwords... Prudent Conservatism

A fateful decision is nearing!

Israeli leaders have a very tough decision to make sooner or later concerning the growing nuclear weapons and air defense capabilities of Iran. Iran has already fielded one version of the Russian S-300 missile defense system, and is building its own, better versions at a rapid pace. The importance of the Iranian air defense buildup is illustrated by the following reference:

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Air_Defense_Force

Such a buildup reinforces my belief that Israel must make a fateful decision about how to attack Iran. To penetrate the defenses Iran has erected by a conventional attack scenario seems to be an exercise in devastation of their own air and missile force without fully accomplishing their objectives. They have the means, however, to shut down virtually all of the Iranian capabilities for defense by using a succession of nuclear blasts carefully positioned at medium to high altitude that generate electromagnetic pulses (EMP). (EMP itself does not kill people in the field of the blast directly. There may be deaths caused by disabled electrical systems, however, such as autos, traffic lights or medical equipment, etc.)

The EMP blasts would disable virtually all electronics in the area under the blast for a period of time, thus the need for successive blasts separated in time (perhaps three to five hours) to ensure the electronics remain disabled, or are re-disabled. During the time between each wave of EMP blasts the IAF can roam at will in the Iranian airspace and take out defenses, offensive weapons, and nuclear capabilities. Successive missions could well decimate the Iranian military capability to respond to the attack, as well as the feared nuclear sites. Once the air defenses have been neutralized, the IAF can fly in their MOAB-type bombs that are launched from the rear of C-130 transport aircraft to dig out and disable the underground nuclear sites.

Using nuclear weapons would subject Israel to instant condemnation from all over the world. Looked at from an Israeli perspective, however, it is a tradeoff between annihilation of their nation by Iran and the worldwide condemnation they would suffer afterwards for some period of time.

Just how potent is the threat from Iran? They appear to be verging on completing their first nuclear weapon, and have already begun building and testing the missiles that could carry the nukes. The greatest threat, in my opinion, is the improved mobile air defense system that could be deployed rapidly to destroy Israeli nuclear missiles as they rise from their launch pads, as well as used in point defense of high value targets, thus robbing the Israelis of a goodly part of their counter to a nuclear attack by Iran. A look at the geography shows that such mobile missile systems can be brought into close proximity to the Israeli missile fields in the Sinai through Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories, and perhaps even Jordan. Their actual movement into near proximity to their attack positions could be disguised as an addition to the air defenses of the respective nations and territories.

The fateful decision, then, is will they use their nuclear EMP capability in a full military attack on Iran. The jury is out!

# posted by Mannning @ 5:16 PM