Sunday, March 07, 2010
Iran and Israel 2010
We return to the possibility of war with Iran
The stakes are extremely high for the Israelis. A nuclear-armed Iran is a direct threat to their existence as a nation. They have held off so far, but by most assessments I have seen, Iran is near the numbers of nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles needed to simply burn Israel to the ground. A decision to strike by Israel is ever nearer, despite the cooling rhetoric lately coming from the Israeli PM. Such cooling statements would obviously precede an attack in order to lull the Iranians. The moment will be chosen for its unexpected timing.
The big trouble is that Iran has stated again and again that if Israel attacks them, they would retaliate on both Israel and the United States with their sleeper cells, and would disrupt tanker traffic in the Straits of Hormuz. This would bring us into the war immediately, and there is no telling how widespread that war would become in the Middle East.
Our neophyte President would go down swinging trying to appease the Iranians, when the nation would demand that we settle the Iranian question rapidly with overwhelming force. He would be forced to join the carnage of Iran.
We must recognize that to eliminate the nuclear sites is impossible without taking out virtually all of Iran’s air defenses, communications and command centers, as well as every offensive missile site that could be used against Israel or us. In fact, since the very act is war, the attackers would be stupid not to try to take out every Iranian military concentration and facility they can find while they are overhead in force, including the Iranian navy. This effort would be very protracted, probably lasting for several weeks, with bomb damage assessments continuing until some satisfactory indications have been seen that the raids have been successful.
Thus, as I see it, the delay in striking by the Israelis has been very useful to them in order to stockpile sufficient precision weapons, and MOABs (Mother of All Bombs used to dig out underground facilities), and to ensure the readiness of their pilots, aircraft, and ground forces for such a protracted attack and the war that would ensue.
The Israelis would, in my opinion, take the most direct route to Iran, by flying over Jordan and Iraq. I seriously doubt that either Jordan or the US would try to stop them, despite the obvious Islamic leanings of our President and his intellectual idiots.