Wednesday, September 05, 2007
We have few choices to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
The odds of an attack no later than February, 08, are about 80-20, IMO. It could occur earlier if there is some Iranian move that give us the excuse. But, I am betting on the 08 time frame for a number of reasons: our need to replenish our armament stockpiles, especially bunker busters; our need to give the Iranians a little more time and more talks with our friends; our need to gear up for placing even more troops into Iraq and Kuwait; our cycling of carriers to the Straits needs to be choreographed properly; and we need some time to settle the question of sufficient stability in Iraq.
In the end, it is my belief that Bush will order an all-out air attack, after suitable preparations for Iranian counter thrusts. We would welcome a classic battle in the Eastern sands of Iraq/Iran if Iran decides to fight us there. That would be a huge mistake for Iran.
This would not be a simple three-day push. We would observe the results of the first stage, and proceed with further stages as our intelligence reports the need over perhaps six months or so. Stage one will take out Iranian air defenses, command, control, and communications facilities, aircraft and airfields, and any concentrations of armor and infantry that can be found, followed by continuous bombing of known and suspected nuclear sites, transportation facilities for materials, railroads, bridges, and other facilities that are suspected of supporting their nuclear program.
It is obvious that such an attack will have serious consequences: there will be a large number of civilian casualties, because the targets are located near or within civilian population centers; the expected results may not be achieved before many stages of the attack, which will increase both casualties and damage to the Iranian infrastructure, whether it is associated with the nuclear program or not; we will be subjected to terror attacks, which will cause us real damage and many casualties before we contain them (It is possible that the attacks have been planned by now, and that they are inevitable in any event, so we bring them on sooner, rather then later.); the US will be placed on a high war footing, and as the counterattacks begin, we will go for the draft to bolster our defense forces by more than two million men as quickly as possible.
Other consequences may well be hard to take, such as our former allies being solidly against us, and the Islamic world uniting in opposition to us, and causing us horrible financial and oil problems. As this scenario proceeds, we may have no recourse but to drive into Iran to take their nuclear sites and their oil fields, and to threaten the same to Saudi Arabia, unless they continue to export their oil to us. I hope we will not undertake yet another nation- building task, but an occupation. We should let the Iranians decide what to do with their shares of oil revenues.
Can anyone say what the reaction of Russia and China would be in this event?