Rightwords... Prudent Conservatism

The Larger Context – Real Peace in the World


General


It is not easy to characterize each country in the world, but here, for purposes of illustration of the thesis that the United States can make a huge positive difference in the world, nations have been placed into categories that are generally accepted in the international community to represent their economic level at this time. This will permit a tentative and high-level examination of each category and their special needs in the context of a global world economy, followed by examination of the role the US can and does play now, and what it must do in the future. The choices here are not so important: that one nation is in the wrong category does not influence the outcome here by much, if at all.

We are continually beset by the problems of being in the Have world of nations when faced with a large number of Have Nots. Out of some 200 nations, I would put the US, Canada, Mexico, the EU (25 nations), Russia, India, China, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Australia and Japan in the Have (H) category.

That leaves 163 nations in the Have Not (HN) category. The Middle East, Africa (minus South Africa), Malaysia, Indonesia, Venezuela, and the western-most nations of South America are in the HN category. The HN nations can be further divided into those who have significant oil and export it, and those who don’t. Thus The Middle East, Indonesia, The ‘stans and Venezuela are Have Not with Oil (HNO) nations. This amounts to perhaps 19 or 20 HNO nations in the world.

Why this subdivision? It is obvious. The Have nations, with their needs to keep their engines turning over, buy the oil, and are increasing their consumption every year beyond what they can pump for themselves. So the importance of oil is growing by the year, and the HNOs are the suppliers, as they hold perhaps 3/4ths of the proven reserves. The major powers, the US, Canada, Russia, the EU, China, and Japan are competing for the ever-dwindling supply of oil, mainly from the Middle East. Thus, to no one's surprise, oil is a major economic driver for the world economy.

The HNO nations, on the other hand, have so far refused to develop their infrastructure, their people, and their other resources using their massive profits from oil sales. Hence, these nations typically have an upper class that is super wealthy, and lower classes that have not benefited from this flow of oil money very much, if at all. The contrast between their capital cities and their rural towns and villages is stark, dismal and unreal.

The HNOs do spend money on their military. Many have large standing armies, relatively modern weapons, tanks, artillery, air defense installations, aircraft, munitions, coastal navy ships, bases, and troops. The major arms exporters find a ready market for the equipment their nation is willing to sell to the HNOs. This holds for communications, television networks, automobiles, white goods, and the other trappings of the H nations as well, but only for those who can afford them, obviously – the elite.

The other HN nations, about 148 of them, are the Poorest in the world (HNP), and they do not even have what benefits oil has brought to the HNOs. These nations are rural, subsistence-level societies, with little or nothing that will bring them into the emerging Have category at this time, except for poorly exploited (or unexploited) natural resources, food products and tourism.

Some HNP (as well as HNO, of course.) have benefited by having been colonized by European powers in previous centuries, which left them with better than usual infrastructures, rules of law, and administration of government, if they were wise-enough to maintain and use them once they attained their independence. Most European nations possessed at one time or another major colonial empires, gained by subjugation of the indigenous populations and deals that carved up the lands between themselves. Economic vestages of these empires still exist in the form of international corporations that hold dominating contracts for exploitation of resources in former colonies.

It is well-documented that these HNP nations are becoming seriously disrupted by the continuing rise in the price of oil, and are thus set back even further in their attempts to rise above their current economic status. They cannot draw the investment funds to develop their hydroelectric power, coal resources, or other energy resources because they cannot pay for them. UN, World Bank, and the IMF assistance has been insufficient for many years.

The tax base of HNPs is too low to provide for the roads, power lines, water, sewage disposal, communications, police, fire departments, health care, transportation, and the myriad other services we H nations take for granted, except, of course, in their main cities, their tourist attractions, and where the wealthy elite live.

HNP nations deal also with rampant corruption, which usually results in loan money from the H nations never quite filtering down in enough quantity to aid the masses living in poverty to any great degree. In many cases, what money there is finds its way to the military of the nation, to defend itself (and especially the elite) from others who might covet their land. Then too, where military necessity dictates it, not where economics would dictate, they develop their road systems, communications, and, largely for pride and show purposes, air and rail transport.

It is apparent that the world prefers to deal with the HNOs, and to recycle their petrodollars. The HNP nations are largely ignored in the financial centers of the world. But economic considerations also lead to the question of security, since any economy cannot grow and succeed without its basic security needs being satisfied. Investors will not risk significant development capital if a nation is likely to be faced with insurrection, invasion, or massive corruption: that is, lack of basic security and the rule of law. The rate of conflict around the world is at an average of 37 significant engagements per year involving two or more nations, which is down from about 65 per year in the 1980s.

This then, in very, very broad terms, is the world situation we are in now, mainly from an economic viewpoint. The US is the super power of the world at this time, with an enormous economy, an unstoppable military, raw resources still available, technical competence, an awesome infrastructure, and tiers of educated people at several levels.

We trade with almost every country in the world, with a few exceptions, and we are the main consumer of natural resources in the world. Our economy is heavily based on oil resources now, and will continue to be for some time to come. Hence our trading relationships with HNOs everywhere.

So what are we to do with this super power we have for the Have Nots of the world? What could we do if we worked ever more closely with other major powers to aid the Have Nots? Does the UN figure into this equation, or not? Can we eliminate the corruption that plagues current aid efforts?

Could we achieve the near total abandonment of war around the world? Could we create the climate for secure investment that is needed in the HNs? And, could we start the growth cycle for HNs to move into the Have category, and thereby bring many hundreds of millions of people out of starvation and hopelessness into a livable existence? Could we halt or at least minimize the expenditures on military hardware and troops in the HNs? What needs doing first, second, and third, and....?

(to be continued)

# posted by Mannning @ 11:39 PM