Rightwords... Prudent Conservatism

Bad Actors


At the moment, one can easily identify two more nations that can be classified as bad actors: North Korea and Iran. Both have been pursuing nuclear weapons, and both have evidently made considerable progress in that direction.

The US has joined with 11 initial nations to form the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), for the purpose of interdicting WMD elements and devices wherever found, on land, sea or air. The US State Department site: http://www.state.gov/t/np/rls/other/34726.htm
gives an overview of the PSI, its interdiction rules and the countries that have joined the initiative. The starter nations were; Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Japan, the United Kingdom, Portugal, and Spain. All agreed to and signed the Statement of Interdiction Principles which governs the activities of the PSI.

This effort is one part of the total approach to stopping proliferation of WMD, and it was successful in the case of Lybia. But they haven't been able to inhibit the NK or Iran.

The NK government is being prodded to return to the six-party talks on giving up its nuclear weapons program. The single most important nation at the table here is China, that has do-or-die influence on the NK. There is some chance that the NK will return to the table this July, but speculation is that the NK is merely delaying the talks in order to produce a sufficient number of nuclear warheads to provide a serious threat to the US. China is playing a waiting game as well, since they could stop the NK program overnight, but have not done so.

Iran is still in talks with France, Germany, and the UK under UN auspices on ending their nuclear weapons program. The US is not participating directly at this time, but has adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Israel has threatened to attack every nuclear facility in Iran if the Iranians do not accede to the request to end its program in a verifiable manner.

This is the summer, or perhaps the fall, for possible tests of nuclear weapons by either the NK or Iran. Such an event would probably be the trigger for Israel to attack Iran, or for both the US and Israel to attack through the air. If the NK tests its weapon, this will raise the stakes very high for the US.

In truth, the US cannot afford to allow the NK to go on developing WMD any more than it can allow Iran either. One main problem is the possible sale of WMD to third parties, who would not be constrained in the least from covertly shipping such weapons to the US and detonating them all at once. The thought of OBL with a few nuclear weapons at his disposal, together with a number of ships that are known to be available to him for transport to the US, is frightening.

A second main problem is the State of Israel’s very existence. Ten or so multimegaton nuclear bombs could essentially wipe out the country: its cities and most of its people. Along with many other people that would be in the path of the fallout, say, in Jordan, Iraq, and maybe even Iran itself, or Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, depending upon the prevailing winds. But Israel would cease to exist. Is it any wonder that they are deeply concerned?

Mad to consider? Ask yourself why a nation rich in oil reserves, such as Iran, needs so desparately to develop full weapons-grade nuclear capabilities and facilities of its own, and the means to deliver weapons as far away as Israel? Does anyone really hate Israel and the Jewish race that much? You decide.

(to be continued)

# posted by Mannning @ 11:47 PM