Rightwords... Prudent Conservatism

Yes or No to the EU Constitution?



On May 29th, the French will vote to accept or reject the constitution of the EU. Several French newspapers, including Le Monde, have polled the public and report that more than 56% of the voters are inclined to vote NON as of Saturday, April 23rd. If this happens, the ambitions of the French elite to lead the EU to glory will be abruptly quashed. They have two further hurdles to jump in that event, however. One is the same vote in Holland, where a NO vote by them would end the current attempts to form the EU.

Given that the Dutch pass the constitution, which is by no means a sure thing, then some 30 to 90 days later, as I understand it, a revised constitution can be submitted again for approval to the members, including France. If this fails in any nation, that is the end of it for now.

My outpost in Holland suggests that the Dutch will vote NO, and so does the news bureau AFP.

I have wondered how it would be possible for a central, and unelected government in Belgium to rationalize the now 25 desparate countries that have signed up initially for the EU, and make their economies sing with a socialistic, redistribute the wealth agenda. Culturally and historically these nations are rather far apart, and the more successful of them resent having to pay for the laggards among them to catch up economically(or not, which is more likely!).

There is a danger to the US in all of this, and it is Europe's dismal failure to build a defense force sufficient to keep Russia at bay. From a common defense viewpoint, the EU is weak to the point of extreme danger. NATO, which places the US in the role of major defender, is a shell now. The only reason for the US to consider maintaining its role is to discourage Russia from having a go at overrunning Europe.

It is also true that the EU nations have been basking under the protection of the US for 60 or so years, while spending paltry amounts for defense -- about 3% of their budgets per year -- whereas we have averaged over 9 or 10% of a far larger budget. All of this is true whether or not the EU becomes a reality, albeit a relatively toothless one.

A surprise ground invasion initiated by Russia with conventional forces probably couldn't be stopped. We would possibly face a fait accompli before we could reenforce the Continent, or we could go to nuclear war. Seems that today we are back into the same old Cold War MAD situation, but with less Allied troops on the ground, and a numerous 5th column in each country -- socialists and communists. I hope there are also less Russian troops on the ground too!

It all depends on whether Russia has covertly managed to build up their ground and air forces and material for such an invasion, and whether they have the ambition to do so now. Unthinkable? Maybe!

Are we really committed to these choices today -- to defend the chaotic and weak EU nations and risk nuclear war, or for the US to sit back and await developments? Neither choice is very palatable, but then it never was in the entire history of the Cold War -- and WWII as well.

Be prepared to duck!

# posted by Mannning @ 11:10 PM